Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.483120 23.831952 25.259106 26.888405 28.705498 30.679757 33.000715
2026-01-25 20.205006 22.030987 24.061424 26.510431 29.417412 32.801902 37.108758
2026-02-01 18.734879 20.775271 23.113599 26.033210 29.643200 34.050063 39.988570
2026-02-08 17.307163 19.410571 21.871001 25.017809 29.023791 34.087764 41.218094
2026-02-15 16.871774 19.164050 21.908328 25.517052 30.272365 36.544941 45.882329
2026-02-22 16.399542 18.824793 21.785197 25.771619 31.185709 38.606869 50.247325
2026-03-01 15.585904 18.009246 21.003796 25.097989 30.769186 38.745019 51.716395
2026-03-08 14.428872 16.710131 19.541041 23.432010 28.859133 36.561726 49.253954
2026-03-15 14.098982 16.443575 19.391727 23.511852 29.386643 37.974216 52.749831
2026-03-22 13.837511 16.248947 19.320307 23.683564 30.043806 39.625966 56.884497
2026-03-29 13.491188 15.927500 19.062227 23.574350 30.270581 40.614755 59.989820
2026-04-05 13.323301 15.830504 19.096070 23.872100 31.118447 42.671011 65.441223
2026-04-12 12.987922 15.552011 18.941584 23.997365 31.883954 44.978520 72.622096
2026-04-19 12.505085 15.063123 18.483654 23.664674 31.927317 46.110259 77.868512
2026-04-26 12.051919 14.589680 18.015962 23.274014 31.821143 46.929892 82.647543
2026-05-03 11.493003 13.949266 17.282303 22.432695 30.890541 46.081661 83.101109
2026-05-10 11.360421 13.888000 17.366373 22.846729 32.111820 49.545077 96.153701
2026-05-17 11.177733 13.747270 17.325500 23.057408 32.996118 52.495381 109.483449
2026-05-24 10.790763 13.304861 16.823348 22.499303 32.448563 52.330178 112.868564
2026-05-31 10.190272 12.545475 15.831765 21.110818 30.304047 48.472614 102.435186
2026-06-07 10.025775 12.399210 15.740833 21.177632 30.835335 50.579540 113.955362
2026-06-14 9.891712 12.290801 15.700066 21.321232 31.518632 53.148260 129.093356
2026-06-21 9.703462 12.098214 15.524596 21.229913 31.744547 54.686874 141.356148